Sunday, March 31, 2019

Renown futurist retracts prediction! Expect technological singularity in 2025, not 2045!

Due to recent progress in all fields of industry and research, and the enormous interconnectivity between these, especially physics, in the age near nanomachine, renown futurist that used to predict the technological singularity at 2045, has changed his stance and predicts 2025 instead!

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We used to think that the best artificial intelligence was the one that emulated human thought equally or better, but, we already have idiot-savant A.I., excelling at few tasks, such as combining the known knowledge of our civilization about physics. Given problems, such A.I. can give be coming out with solutions. For example, in the field of nanotechnology in organic environment, it can invent stable molecules in body's PH, that can combine in structures smaller than a living cell, that also receive wireless energy from a source nearby, and wifi, and move, like spiders, lacing the host with many strings of fiber-optic bandwidth. We can already 3D print atom-sized structures of various sorts. Finding the right structure to print has been the issue so far. There is no government structure in the multiverse that can prevent billionaires from becoming Superbillionaires, in the Superman sense, way more than immortal, if they can do it in a decade or so. Also, don't forget, who does it first becomes also Boss of Superbillionaries. In these conditions I predict genius A.I. by 2025, and by 2025 still, a couple of months later, nanomachine technology of the sort just described, for in-human use. We may never discover the secret of consciousness, or, we may. Completely artificial Turing-test-winners of general intelligence type able to understand and interact with the many nuances of human life in evermore complex future society may never come, or, probably, will come at most a few years later. But General Artificial Intelligence is not the technological singularity, Genius Artificial Intelligence is, we should be prepared for it because it is too lucrative a target for any current geopolitical force to hold back, if that kind of tyranny is even possible, or desirable.
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This is assuming this physics, and lightspeed limit, is the only world we can live in, and there are no aliens just waiting for such singularity to occur, before contacting us. Instead, if we live in a simulation, we also have other realities to test and explore choice-branches of. And, we definitively ALSO live in an emulation, too, if Einsteinian cosmos extends forever in at least one direction of space or time, making it impossible for there to not be aliens or variants of ourselves that are playing our causality like an emulation, and can extract beings from it, afterlife-style, but not limited to it.

Indeed, 'technology indistinguishable from magic', may have been a mild prediction. If we figure out the rules of the substrate of our "also-emulation", we may hook up our civilization to the base of reality in extreme forms. Infinite energy and time travel become possible.

Can we surpass lightspeed? Definitely this will be explored in greater depth after we discover the formula of the universe, somewhere before, or after, we invent Genius A.I. Either way, from flesh to software, a life anywhere in between, will be open option before a decade rolls. New terms of description will be needed. Migrated Intelligence and the culture it brings along are complex. There is no need to define and limit what we can call True Artificial Intelligence, especially after such great improvements on deep learning. With many more leisure clusters of processor cycles making and correcting errors, as we keep improving at it still at doubling per year, (check how many cores your phone has), we may be forced to recognize other forms of intelligence. Cooperatively, in this world, we can, and will, get brain scanners, and direct electromagnetic emulation rather than neuron emulation. In due time more kinds of life forms will have a chance to form their own culture and society. And if we are not smart enough to build this, or that technology, we will build super processors and emulate worlds with sentient creatures that are smart enough to, and copy from there.

How all this can go wrong, is a story for another day, and another book. But maybe we have had enough nightmares in fiction to be prepared, and doing reality better than it, especially if it is so inevitably desirable and within reach, for at least a few, and, is a race who catches it first rather than an issue of 'if'. And this is true. 2 lies may not be a truth, but 2 truths cannot be a lie.


Happy distraction day 20190401!